MARCH 2024
RARE MARKET REPORT
By DANIEL FOCH
Director of Economic Research
Landing, Soft or Hard
New construction sales hit record lows in February, significantly below historical averages, while new construction prices showed slight divergences. Housing construction remained strong, with both housing starts and completions being well above historical averages.
GROWTH SLUMP
Canada’s economic and productivity performance is lagging, with labour productivity growing by only 0.2 percent annually between early 2015 and the end of 2023. This is the slowest growth over an eight-year period ever recorded.
Income growth has also stalled, affecting daily living standards. Growth in earnings and labour compensation has also been low – only twice in the past century has growth been more sluggish than today, both during serious recessions.
RECESSION?
TD Economics acknowledge that, based on consumer spending the Canadian economy already feels like it’s in a recession
In fact, consumer spending is worse than the 2008 2009 recession but still not as bad as the 1990s recession.
POPULATION GROWTH
RBC has already been among the choir of economist speaking out against Canada’s non-permanent residence strategy, and its associated population growth
Immediately after the governments, decision to reduce non-permanent, resident growth.
Recall that Desjardins forecast that a reduction in NPR growth would push Canada into economic hard landing territory
